Score
Title
10680
In a discussion about the missing Argentinian submarine, a submariner describes what it would be like to be on board.
143
France has overtaken Britain as 5th economy in the world. The subreddit celebrates by changing lyrics of "I will survive".
60
Redditor offers to buy "a whole Christmas" for needy families on reddit in 2017...and he's been doing this for years
9920
User thinks orangutang is a giraffe. Hilarious paint drawing explains his POV!
17
Reddit shill explains how they're paid to manipulate online discussion
36
User gives in-depth explanation of what products use Cobalt after a Model S driver gets an unwelcomed note on their car
25
The security system at work arms itself, he is the only one there today, and he doesn't know the disarm code but that's the least of /u/DTDude's worries.
8
Redditor explains what it's like to live under surveillance in a country "generally assumed to be a dictatorship".
30
/u/FleetInBeing eloquently illustrates the moral and economic dilemma in supplying arms to unsavoury regimes
7944
u/HikeMoffman explains the difference between experiencing -17 and -30 degree celsius cold
4
PCMR u/Destructopuppy Gives a detailed instructions on saving your mechanical keyboard from beverage spills
94
/u/FontPeg explains why now we need Net Neutrality protections when we did not have them before 2015
78
Redditor describes the horror of sleep walking and eating.
219
Redditor discovers hidden progression speed limits which encourage microtransactions in Destiny 2
107
u/theevolvingatheist gets some petty revenge on an anti-vaxx relative by not attending Thanksgiving. Posts recipe for amazing baked mac and cheese.
83
Man being domestically abused asks UK for help, people genuinely rally round for support.
823
Redditor educates us with a reply as to why a war with North Korea would be a bad idea. Quality of reply written like a research paper impresses many.
47
Redditor explains why internet nostalgia makes no sense
20
On this Thanksgiving day, mom recounts how 11 years ago her 3-year old son became a vegetarian, and how she makes sure that he too has a great Thanksgiving meal today
6990
Redditor photoshops very accurate picture of Ashit Pai
35693
Redditor explains why net neutrality matters, as if to someone who uses libraries.
18
Redditors create the cat version of Notorious B.I.G. - "Juicy" in the comments of an article
10
/u/diarrhea_shnitzel's shitty resume
909
Redditor identifies a potential weak link on the 5-member FCC Committee that will decide on Net Neutrality & offers messaging suggestions based on his history
25
Redditors deliver free Thanksgiving meals to those in need.
34
Daishomaru gives a lengthy talk about chickens in Japan after watching the latest Food Wars episode
42
Redditor posts a photoshopped image in various locations featuring the previous location each time.
67361
Redditor lists all the times IPSs have illegally broken Net Neutrality laws.
21
/u/Bradley__ continuously writes an impressively detailed short story over five comments, about waiting in an airport terminal.
50
User explains how the FCC works using an... odd example
22
Redditor simplistically explains why large companies may choose not to pay off their debts
271
/u/truefalseequivalence breaks down why Voting Democrat would have protected and expanded Network Neutrality
15
Redditor psychoanalyzes Thomas the Tank Engine
3097
u/ssldvr posts the fcc phone number for filing a complaint against Pai's net neutrality revocation plan, then /u/pezhore proveds the option selections for getting to the operator immediately as well as the proceeding number to file the complaint against.
29
American Redditor answer a non-american why Net Neutrality keeps being an issue that needs to be defended in the US
361
User explains how the Net Neutrality vote works (only 5 people decide) and how we need to flip only one of them to save it.
43
User reverse engineers an app's encryption to restore data from an app that no longer works on iOS 11
0
Of all the Reddit Net Neutrality moments, this is my favorite
22
Redditor gives some of the best advice of all time.
42
Best of: Reddit user agrees to build a doggie wheelchair
206 0 DrLionelRaymond 10/10. Would hire. (I run the R&D wing of a data science company).
30 0 bokononpreist Did you find a difference between home and away games?
75 0 SpecialK_714 Ol' Roy already knew this tho
18 0 zamstat I hope it is okay if I play the role of skeptic. It's not that I don't think you did good work - this is a fantastic write-up - but there are a few things that make me hesitant. * Was your final sample size ~450 with only ~30 runs without timeouts? Given that there are over 5000 games in a given season, that seems small to me. Less than 10% of all games contain a run that might merit a timeout? If it is the right sample size, I am also surprised that a timeout was called in 95% (~30/450) of scenarios where a team went on a run of 6+ points in a short timeframe. I cannot tell from your code whether you limited the analysis to only those games where the final overall scoring margin during the game was greater than 5 points. You mentioned it in your documentation, but I could not verify whether it was implemented. I agree with your inclination to attempt to control for 'guarantee game' blowout where teams are likely to go on 6+ runs, the opponent is less likely to calla timeout, and the run is likely to continue. However, I don't think the solution is to restrict the dataset to only those games that ended up close. You lose some relevant timeout scenarios (e.g., team that is up large/has opponent go on 6pt run/calls timeout/proceeds to blow them out) as well as potentially bias the control scenarios. * I must admit that I am not 100% clear on your methodology. I think I understand how you assess the stoppage of runs for settings with a timeout: you start the time-window at the timeout and track performance over the next 10 possessions. I am less clear on how you handle non-timeouts. Do you start the clock once the run becomes official (i.e., 6+ points) or when it hits its peak? If either of these are true, I believe you might be giving an advantage to the non-timeout group. As a quick check, it would be interesting to look at the summary statistics regarding the run size between the timeout and non-timeout groups. * Have you considered a matching study design? That is, for every scenario where a timeout was called, find a similar scenario where a timeout was not called. You could match on the current scoring differential, the time left in the game, and even on how the run progressed (e.g., made 2, miss, made 3, steal, made 3). * Have you considered working with expected win probabilities? Given that you scrapped play-by-plays for every game, you could likely create empirical win probability tables for every second of a 40 minute game. I see two key advantages here. I personally think this better quantifies a run (is a game 'slipping' away?) compared to a simple point differential. I am skeptical of 6+ points being classified as a run as a blanket statement. Also, it may help eliminate the 'blowout' scenarios. Again, I think this was a great investigation. I especially want to thank you for sharing your code. *Edits for formatting*
11 0 Barnhard This is impressive.
7 0 hesnothere So I guess what you're saying is, Roy knew?
7 0 [deleted] Good work. Someone should pay you for this.
6 0 [deleted] [deleted]
4 0 ljfdlksdjfhkl A few comments. A couple of preliminaries, first on notation: p(x|y) is not the probability that x AND y occur. It is the probability that x occurs GIVEN that y has already occurred. Bayes rule is all about this: p(x and y) [often written p(x ∩ y)] = p(x|y)*p(y) = p(y|x)*p(x). Secondly, keep in mind that this is an observational study, and so inferring causality is tricky. In particular, p(run ended|timeout) is NOT the "probability that calling a timeout is responsible for ending a run". It is the probability that the run ended given that a timeout was called, and says nothing directly about causal links. I think your calculations of p(RE|T) are correct, but two things: (a) the denominator in your Bayes equation is actually just p(timeout called), which you could calculate directly and simplify your code. But also (b), do you need to do the Bayes bit at all? Can't you calculate p(RE|T) directly from the data, as you are doing now for p(T|RE)? [i.e. find all situations where a timeout was called, and tabulate the proportion of those where the run ended = p(RE|T)]. Either way, the absolute value of p(RE|T) is not particularly informative (so your statement "as low as a 22% chance that timeouts are responsible for ending runs" is a little misleading). Imagine a situation where the probability of a run ending (without timeout) is 0.1, but it's 0.2 when a timeout is called. That would seem to be pretty good evidence that calling a timeout is associated with an increased probability of the run ending, even though the probability of the run ending is still quite low in absolute terms. Which brings us back to causality. Ideally you want to find situations where timeouts were called, and comparable situations where timeouts were not called, and look for evidence of a difference in the two sets of outcomes. I realize that you already know this, I'm just writing it down. Having found that evidence, it's down to interpretation and judgement as to whether or not the timeout was the causal mechanism. So the more relevant interpretation of p(RE|T) would be to look at p(RE|T)-p(RE|not T). A positive value would indiate a potential positive effect of timeout. This is what you're doing in the last figure. But your differences are negative (p(RE|not T) > p(RE|T) ?), with timeouts being associated with a slightly lower probability of the run ending. Which might be genuine (perhaps timeouts tend to be called when coaches get desperate and the run is basically unsalvageable, so the fact that the timeout has been called is really an indicator of the calling team being outplayed, rather than any indication of the timeout itself having a negative effect on run ending). But also I wonder if the way you are viewing runs is slightly problematic - runs of up to 10 events seems quite long, and the chances of a timeout being called in that span are quite high (e.g. look at your score ratio=1.0 numbers: you have 456 runs, in 430 of which a timeout was called). So (a) you have very little data about what happens when timeouts are NOT called, which makes it difficult to make inferences about the effect of timeout. And (b) there is no distinction between a timeout called early in the run vs a timeout called late in the run. Maybe there is some value in shortening your 10-event window, and/or comparing runs of given length (e.g. find all runs that extended for at least 3 events. Calculate the proportion of runs that ended after timeout was called AT 3 events, and the proportion that ended at 3 events without timeout. Repeat for different run lengths). Final comment, it might be worth repeating this in a statistical modelling framework and comparing results. It would be fairly straightforward: fit a binomial generalized linear model where the outcome (run ended) is a function of whether timeout was called (true or false), and look at the coefficient of the timeout term (and test its significance, if you like). Sorry all of that sounds rather negative, it's not meant to be. There's definitely some interesting results in there, just needs some refining to bring them out. You might be interested in this study, which looks at a closely-analogous situation of timeouts in volleyball matches: [detail](http://untan.gl/articles/2016/07/16_timeouts-in-the-polish-volleyball-league.html) and [shorter summary](https://markleb1.wordpress.com/2016/07/11/the-truth-about-timeouts-part-two/). Basically - there's not a lot of evidence that timeouts help in volleyball, either. (Edit: formatting)
3 0 barrio-libre Please forward to Sean Miller.
3 0 purpletraitor69 how would I know?
2 0 TotesMessenger I'm a bot, *bleep*, *bloop*. Someone has linked to this thread from another place on reddit: - [/r/bestof] [\/u\/Chu\_BOT posts rigorous statistical analysis of whether timeouts affect scoring runs in basketball. Potentially gets a job offer on the spot.](https://np.reddit.com/r/bestof/comments/6zlsz6/uchu_bot_posts_rigorous_statistical_analysis_of/) - [/r/theydidthemath] [\[RDTM\] Do timeouts stop scoring runs? (a thrilling statistical analysis) (x-post from r\/collegebasketball)](https://np.reddit.com/r/theydidthemath/comments/6zmqs6/rdtm_do_timeouts_stop_scoring_runs_a_thrilling/) [](#footer)*^(If you follow any of the above links, please respect the rules of reddit and don't vote in the other threads.) ^\([Info](/r/TotesMessenger) ^/ ^[Contact](/message/compose?to=/r/TotesMessenger))* [](#bot)
4 0 4thgengamecock Shut up and take my up-vote