Lets do the math to calculate our chances.
[The official makeup of Reese's Pieces](http://www.delish.com/food/a49797/things-you-didnt-know-about-reeses-pieces/
>50% orange, 25% brown, and 25% yellow
I can infer from the cover art that this is in fact a [48oz bag of Reese's pieces](https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/713J0kvUXdL._SL1000_.jpg
). 51 pieces of Reeses pieces equates to [40 grams](https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/71aYz4c937L._SL1500_.jpg
) of Reeses pieces. 48 oz to grams is 1360.78 grams. 1360.78 grams of Reeses pieces is (51/40)*(1360.78) = 1734 pieces.
867 pieces are Orange Reeses Pieces
433 pieces are yellow Reeses Pieces
433 pieces are brown Reese Pieces
with one tossup piece being brown or yellow
[The official makeup of most M&M colors is](https://qz.com/918008/the-color-distribution-of-mms-as-determined-by-a-phd-in-statistics/
*Edit: Given the variable distribution by state I used the information for 2017 distribution located further down in the article.
>M&M'S Milk Chocolate: 25% blue, 25% orange, 12.5% green, 12.5% yellow, 12.5% red and 12.5% brown.
From the art I can infer that it is a [56 oz bag of M&Ms](https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/818Xz4cHOqL._SY450_.jpg
As per the M&M website 7oz of M&Ms is [approximately 210 pieces of m&ms](https://www.mymms.com/category/customer+service/faq.do
). So the 56 oz bag will have (210/7)*56 = 1680 M&Ms
* 210 brown M&Ms
* 210 yellow M&Ms
* 210 red M&Ms
* 420 orange M&Ms
* 210 green M&Ms
* 420 blue M&Ms
Finally we have the skittles bag which looks to be a [41 oz skittles bag](https://target.scene7.com/is/image/Target/13304637?wid=520&hei=520&fmt=pjpeg
Skittles are [evenly distributed](http://www.skittles.com/
) by color (purple, yellow, green, orange, red: 20% each) and there are 400 skittles per 16 oz.
So to find out the entire amount of skittles per 41 oz bag. (400/16)*41 = 1025 skittles.
As per the even distribution there are exactly 205 skittles of each color yielding.
* 205 red skittles
* 205 yellow skittles
* 205 orange skittles
* 205 green skittles
* 205 purple skittles
So now we can discern that there are roughly 1025 skittles, 1680 M&Ms and 1734 Reeses Pieces yielding 4439 distinguishable candies in the bowl.
Should you select a candy entirely at random, you selection would have the highest probability of being a Reeses Piece (39%).
For purposes of taking risks by color and not being able to infer the difference between them by the obvious M on M&Ms, S on skittles and glossy sheen on the Reese Pieces (lets say you left your glasses at home) the best bet would be able to choose a piece by color.
When choosing a red piece (210 M&Ms + 205 skittles = 415): 51% chance M&M 49% chance skittles
When choosing a orange piece (205 skittles + 420 M&Ms +867 reeses pieces = 1492) 58% chance reeses piece, 14% skittles, 28% M&Ms
When choosing a yellow piece (205 skittles + 210 M&Ms + 433 reeses pieces = 848) 24% chance skittles, 25% M&Ms and 51% reeses pieces
When choosing a green piece (205 skittles + 210 M&Ms = 415) 49% chance skittles, 51% chance M&Ms
When choosing a blue piece 420 M&Ms, 100% chance M&Ms
When choosing a purple piece 205 Skittles, 100% chance skittles.
When choosing a brown piece (210 brown M&Ms + 433 brown reeses pieces = 643) 33% chance M&Ms, 67% chance reeses pieces.
So in order of percentage chance:
Best shot at getting a skittle:
* purple 100%
* green 49%
* red 49%
* yellow 24%
* orange 14%
Best shot at getting a reeses piece
* brown 67%
* orange 58%
* yellow 51%
Best shot at getting an M&Ms
* blue 100%
* red 51%
* green 51%
* brown 33%
* orange 28%
* yellow 25%
So in conclusion, if you want a skittle, go with purple, if you want a reeses piece go with brown and if you want an M&M go with blue.